Silent Defaults

Impact of SOFR Rate Changes on Portfolio Companies' Fixed Charge Coverage Ratios

November 2024
With SOFR at 5%, around 40% of the companies that Lincoln values have an FCCR of one or less. Despite rates coming down, over 30% of companies will still have an FCCR of one or less, but M&A is poised to accelerate.

Fed's Surprise Rate Cut: Balancing Economic Slowdown and Inflation Risks

November 2024
In response to a slowing economy, the Fed's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut raises questions about timing and potential inflation resurgence, as concerns linger over whether the cuts are too late or too rapid amidst rising goods prices and economic uncertainty.

Dynamics Driving the Chemicals Market

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Specialty Chemicals Transformation

August 2024
Specialty chemical providers are thriving, driven by a focus on technology, product differentiation and high-growth markets. However, to stay competitive, companies must prioritize commercial innovation and robust R&D.
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Traditional Oil and Gas Companies Leading Charge Toward Sustainability

August 2024
Traditional oil and gas companies are leading in green tech innovation. Downstream chemical companies must align with this shift, crafting strong ESG narratives to demonstrate how their goals contribute to sustainability.
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European Energy Crunch

August 2024
The European energy crunch highlights a shift in the global chemical industry. With less gas from Russia, the U.S. and Asia have a competitive advantage, creating opportunities for companies that effectively navigate this landscape.
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Growing Activity in Oil Field Chemicals

August 2024
The oil field chemicals sector is experiencing a surge in interest. As a critical component in supporting energy and feedstock needs for a growing global population, this industry is poised for further consolidation.
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Takeaways from the Specialty & Ag Chemicals SOCMA Show

August 2024
We are seeing strong interest in chemicals sectors that are resilient to changing consumer preferences, particularly water treatment, cleaning and adhesives. These high-value areas offer consolidation and growth opportunities.

The State of M&A

Potential 2024 Black Swan Events

June 2024
Several factors—such as a potential interest rate cut, a black swan event, and the U.S. election—may impact deal flow in 2024.

What Will Cause Further Acceleration of Deal Flow?

June 2024
In the past year, we've witnessed deal flow, yet there have been fewer closed transactions. This creates a dynamic where sellers struggle to align their expectations with market realities.

When Will Deal Flow Return in Earnest?

June 2024
As deal flow reemerges, it’s partially driven by private equity feeling pressure from their limited partners. After 18 to 24 months without capital returns, LPs are now advocating for liquidity events and distributions, a concept commonly referred to as DPI.

The Current State of the Deal Market

June 2024
Market activity is returning with cautious optimism. Several deals put on hold in 2023 are going to market in 2024.

Pulse on the Transportation and Logistics Market

Strategic Nearshoring is Essential for Supply Chain Resilience

June 2024
Mexico has emerged as America's primary trading partner, surpassing China for the first time in decades. This shifting dynamic underscores the urgency for transportation and logistics providers to scale capabilities.

Which Segments of the Logistics Industry are Most Ripe for M&A Activity?

June 2024
There is great interest in logistics subsectors, such as pharma and healthcare, cold chain, and e-commerce. These industries have long-term demand, regardless of economic conditions.

What Factors are Driving M&A Activity in the T&L Sector

June 2024
While transportation and logistics mergers and acquisitions slowed from its peak in 2021 and 2022, signs indicate activity is trending up. In Q1, 2024 deal activity surged by over 15% compared to the same period last year.

Previous Releases

 

Lincoln's Latest Vet Part 02

Vet Trends - Part Two

February 2024
Part one of our Lincoln's Latest: Vet series. Matt Lee, Managing Director in our Healthcare Group, shares the current staffing, financial and regulatory dynamics in the European vet market.

Vet Trends - Part One

February 2024
Part one of our Lincoln's Latest: Vet series. Matt Lee, Managing Director in our Healthcare Group, shares the current staffing, financial and regulatory dynamics in the European vet market.
Electric Vehicle Trends

Electric Vehicle Trends

August 2023
Lincoln’s automotive and mobility technology professionals share some top trends that are playing a key role in the electric vehicle market’s momentum.
Energy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part OneEnergy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part Three

Energy, Power & Infrastructure Trends - Part Three

August 2023
Part three of our energy, power and infrastructure (EP&I) series! Lincoln’s professionals share themes within the product, outsourced service provider and software technology subsectors.
Energy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part OneEnergy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part Two

Energy, Power & Infrastructure Trends - Part Two

August 2023
Part two of our EP&I series! Lincoln’s professionals explore energy storage, renewable energy and trends specific to Europe.
Energy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part One

Energy, Power & Infrastructure Trends - Part One

July 2023
Part one of our EP&I series! Lincoln’s experts reveal some of the top 2023 global EP&I mega themes impacting the sector.
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Cybersecurity Dynamics

April 2023
Lincoln’s cybersecurity experts reveal some of the top 2023 cybersecurity themes.
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Education Trends

March 2023
Lincoln’s education, technology and services professionals share some of the top trends that are leading the education market in 2023.
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Succeeding in the Beauty Market

Nov 2022
Lincoln’s beauty experts offer brands advice on how to succeed in today’s beauty market.
Q3 2022 Valuation Insights

Q3 2022 Valuation Insights

Nov 2022
Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group shares insights into Q3 2022 valuations, including private company enterprise value multiples, third-party M&A buyouts and European revenue, EBITDA growth and margins.
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ESG Trends

Nov 2022
Lincoln’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) experts share key ESG insights for investors or companies that are looking to buy or sell.
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Trends in the Financial Institutions Market

Sep 2022
Lincoln's Financial Institutions Group offers a perspective on the key trends that are playing a role in the financial institutions market.
Healthcare Thumbnail Q4 2021

Overview of Pharmaceutical Outsourced Market

Nov 2021
James West, Director in Lincoln’s Healthcare Group, gives an overview of the pharmaceutical outsourced market, including global drivers and trends, response from private equity firms and attractive assets for investors within the sector.

Resilient Pet Sector Attracts Increasing Investor Interest Underpinned by Changing Consumer Habits

Apr 2021
Listen as members of Lincoln's Consumer Group share their thoughts on the resilient pet sector; identifying the latest trends in investor appetite and key strategies for growth for pet businesses in 2021.

Q1 Valuation Insights and 2021 Forecasts

Mar 2021
With over 2,400 portfolio #valuations performed globally by Lincoln International last quarter, our global Valuations & Opinions Group shares insights from this data on EV multiples, EBITDA performance and their forecasts for private company valuations in 2021.

Resilient TMT Sector Drives Increasing Competition and Diversified Investment Strategies

Mar 2021
Our TMT colleagues from around the world share insights into trends including artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, as well the latest updates on mergers and acquisitions activity in the sector.

Accelerated Trends in Industrials

Jan 2021
Listen to perspectives on various aspects within the Industrials industry, from the safety and survivability in the specialty vehicle market in a COVID and post-COVID world to outbound mergers and acquisitions trends in China.

Accelerated Trends in Debt Advisory

2020
Hear perspectives on the debt advisory landscape.

Accelerated Trends in Consumer

2020
Hear perspectives on the changing global consumer landscape from opportunities in home living and e-commerce to the evolution of retailers in the face of increasing competition from Amazon.

Accelerated Trends in Business Services

2020
Listen to perspectives on key considerations for mergers and acquisitions in business services, including global distribution and supply chain, talent and staffing in the UK and engineering services in the Nordics.

Accelerated Trends in Valuations & Opinions

2020
Discover proprietary insights into the impact of COVID-19 on private company valuations to date as well as initial Q4 predictions.

Accelerated Trends in Technology, Media & Telecom

2020
Hear insights on navigating rising competition as digital strategies accelerate.

Contributors

I build trust with clients by putting their interests first at all times.

Aude Doyen

Managing Director & Co-head of Capital Advisory, Europe

London

Meet our Senior Team

Recent Perspectives

Lincoln’s Latest

Lincoln’s Latest video series features experts from across industries, services and geographies, sharing perspectives on current trends, recent observations and future outlooks.

Investment Opportunities in Pharma: A Data-Driven Exploration of CDMO Appeal

The report discusses the current state of the contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) market within the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the increased interest from private equity (PE) investors. The pharmaceutical… Read More

Best Practices for Preparing a Corporate Carve Out

While macroeconomic challenges and rising interest rates correlate to a slowdown in mergers and acquisitions, corporate carve out transactions often see significant upticks during times of economic uncertainty as businesses… Read More

Recycled Plastics Market Draws Investor Attention

Not a day goes by without the announcement of a new regulatory, industrial, or commercial initiative relating to the European circular economy, making it a major topic for corporates and… Read More

Corporate Carve Outs: A Strategic Growth Tool for Turbulent Times

When challenges arise in the economic environment, businesses become much less interested in discretionary acquisitions—particularly larger deals or at higher multiples, creating a need for dealmaking alternatives. The result is… Read More

European Market Buzz: Emerging Trends

The European market is bustling with a myriad of activities and developments. Richard Olson, Managing Director in Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group, discussed some of these dynamics with several publications.… Read More

Partial Liquidity Alternatives for Private Equity: An Attractive Option to a Full Exit

Private equity is facing a challenging operating environment. The convergence of inflation, rising interest rates and a host of other economic challenges have compressed equity values and limited full exits… Read More

pemacom | Outlook for the German M&A Market in 2023

Originally published by pemacom on September, 19, 2023.   1. Challenging Economic Environment Following a weak second half of 2022, the number of M&A deals will continue to decline in… Read More

The Lead Left Webinar | Navigating the 2023 M&A Landscape

Originally posted by The Lead Left on October 9, 2023. Christine Tiseo, Managing Director and co-head of Lincoln’s Capital Advisory Group, recently participated on a panel where industry experts discussed… Read More

Affärsvärlden | Increasingly Lower Activity in the M&A Market – But Advisers See Glimmers of Light

Originally posted by Affärsvärlden on October 6, 2023. While the total number of acquisitions fell in Sweden during the third quarter, transaction value increased, and new legislation and other market… Read More

Real Deals | Adapting to the Dealmaking Drought

Originally posted by Real Deals on September 26, 2023. 2023 has seen slower deal activity across Europe and many are hopeful that the market will pick up in the near… Read More

Real Deals | Yield of Dreams

Originally posted by Real Deals on August 29, 2023. Private debt is growing quickly despite rising interest rates. Recent Preqin data indicated that $33.7 billion was raised in Europe in… Read More

Dividend Recapitalization Activity Shows Signs of Renewed Life

The dividend recapitalization market slowed down in 2nd half of 2022 as companies digested rising interest rates. However, in recent months, there has been an uptick in volume as borrowers… Read More

Conceiving Success: Growth and Consolidation in IVF in APAC and the Middle East

In-vitro fertilization in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East is growing quickly due to several factors; the industry’s rapid growth offers an opportunity for investors to capitalize on momentum. In a… Read More

Investors Seek Protection in the Safety Workwear Market

The safety workwear industry is a highly resilient and very attractive market that covers all personal protective equipment from head to toe, including helmets, goggles, gloves, shoes, protective clothing and… Read More

Pitchbook | European Banks Claw Back Mid-market Share as Funds Chase Big Deals

Originally posted by Pitchbook on July 28, 2023. The private debt market has grown exponentially over the past few years. In the current economic environment with rising debt costs and… Read More

Gaining Momentum: European M&A Outlook for H2 2023

The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market will remain challenged throughout 2023 although dealmakers are learning to live with the uncertainty. In the last 12 months, private equity (PE) has been… Read More

German Broadband Infrastructure Market Set for Further Consolidation

It is no longer a surprise that access to high-speed internet is a necessity for individuals, businesses and governments worldwide. In Germany, the federal government has recognized this and set… Read More

Riding the Sound Waves – Key Trends in the Audio Industry

The audio equipment industry, a sub-sector of the $263 billion global professional audio/visual (AV) market, is a large, diversified and resilient sector that is projected to grow significantly over coming… Read More

Cybersecurity: Zeroing in on Current and Future Trends

As we enter the second half of the year, the state of cybersecurity is coming into sharper focus following a tumultuous 2022. Here are Lincoln International’s key observations and predictions.… Read More

DVZ | Logistics and Transport M&A is on the Up

Originally published by DVZ  on June 20, 2023. View the original article (German). Read the article translated to English below: Against the backdrop of macroeconomic headwinds and the rapid normalization… Read More

Investor Appetite for Frozen Food Grows

In the U.S. and in Europe the frozen food market continues to grow. The overall mega themes of products that are high-quality, clean, convenient, fresh, long-lasting, less wasteful and flavorful… Read More

Real Deals | PE-backed Companies Performing ‘Robustly’ Compared to Public Companies

Originally posted by Real Deals on June 7, 2023. According to Lincoln International’s proprietary Valuations & Opinions Group Q1 2023 data, European private companies are performing better than public companies… Read More

How Consumer Products & Services Companies Are Viewing M&A Outlook for 2023

In today’s dealmaking environment, uncertainty and caution reign supreme. Consumer confidence has seen declines as high inflation and recession fears dominate. At the same time, investors continue to look for… Read More

PitchBook | Fixed Charge Coverage Shrinking on Midsized Companies – Lincoln

Originally posted by PitchBook on May 9, 2023. Rising interest rates are negatively impacting borrowers in the middle market. Christine Tiseo, Managing Director and co-head of Lincoln’s Capital Advisory Group,… Read More