In addition, we provide additional descriptive statistics including: (a) loan-to-value; (b) the impact of interest rate (SOFR) and credit changes (spread) on total return; (c) default rates; and, (d) historical yields by EBITDA size.
The U.S. non-investment grade corporate loan market has two segments: the BSL market, which attracts investors investing in broader syndicated deals and the direct lending market for investors investing in club deals. While correlated, there are subtle but significant differences between the two markets. Both markets primarily provide floating rate loans; however, divergences exist in terms of market liquidity, company size, and credit facility size. Given the greater liquidity in the BSL market, pricing and terms are a function of the technical market and competitive factors, whereas the more illiquid direct lending market has a stronger orientation to assessing company fundamentals.
In contrast to the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index (Morningstar LSTA) which is comprised of companies borrowing in the BSL market, the constituents in the Senior Debt Index are virtually all companies borrowing in the direct lending market.
The direct lending market is a significant source of capital to private equity backed middle-market companies. The Lincoln US Senior Debt Index benefits market participants by providing information to facilitate a greater understanding of the attributes of this important source of capital to the private sector.
How We Obtain the Information
On a quarterly basis, Lincoln values over 5,500 private companies primarily owned by over 175 alternative investment funds and lenders to funds. Most of these companies are levered via borrowings from the direct lending market. A significant percentage of the Senior Debt Index constituents are based upon valuations of loans provided for non-public BDCs and other private investment vehicles and, therefore, not disclosed in public filings.
For many of the private companies valued quarterly, Lincoln advises on the fair value of at least one senior debt security in the capital structure. All valuations conform with GAAP and fair value principles and have been reviewed by fund management, fund boards, limited partners, and auditors.
Additional information can be found in our methodology discussion and on our website.
| 98.6 |
| Average Fair Value of Loans in the Index as of Q3 2024 |
Decomposing Yields in the Direct Lending Market – LIBOR/ SOFR Floors and Spreads
Decomposing Yield – LIBOR, LIBOR / SOFR Floors and Spreads – All Loans
Note: LIBOR/SOFR floor reflects fair value weighted average for each period while LIBOR / SOFR above reflects the extent to which LIBOR / SOFR is above the floor. LIBOR / SOFR reflects the spot rate as of the last day of the quarter.
Methodology
Source of Data and Sample Size
On a quarterly basis, Lincoln determines the enterprise fair value of over 5,500 portfolio companies for approximately 175 private equity sponsors and lenders. These portfolio companies report quarterly financial results to the sponsor (i.e., private equity group) or lender. Lincoln obtains company and loan level information to create the Lincoln Senior Debt Index.
All information is prepared in accordance with the fair value measurement principles of generally accepted accounting principles. Finally, each valuation is then vetted by auditors, company management, boards of directors and regulators.
Additional information about the methodology of the LSDI can be found at: www.lincolninternational.com/perspectives/an-overview-of-the-lincoln-senior-debt-index.
Academic Advisor
Professor Pietro Veronesi is the Chicago Board of Trade Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research fellow of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Professor Veronesi’s research has appeared in numerous publications, including the Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics and Review of Financial Studies. He is the recipient of several awards, including the 2015 AQR Insight award, the 2012 and 2003 Smith Breeden prizes from the Journal of Finance, the 2008 WFA award, the 2006 Barclays Global Investors Prize from the EFA, the 2006 Fama / DFA prizes from the Journal of Financial Economics and the 1999 Barclays Global Investors / Michael Brennan First Prize from the Review of Financial Studies. Professor Veronesi teaches both masters- and Ph.D.-level courses. He is the recipient of the 2009 McKinsey Award for Excellence in Teaching.
His undergraduate work was in economics at Bocconi University where he received a laurea magna cum laude with honor in 1992. He earned a master’s degree with distinction in 1993 from the London School of Economics. He joined the Chicago Booth faculty upon obtaining his Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University in 1997.
SummaryQ3 2024 Lincoln Senior Debt IndexFrom 2014 through September 30, 2024, a portfolio of direct lending loans has yielded higher returns and lower volatility relative to broadly syndicated loans. The Lincoln US Senior Debt Index provides market participants many unique valuation insights into the fair value of direct lending loans and represents a significant enhancement to the information available within an opaque market. |
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: The Lincoln Senior Debt Index is an informational indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. It is not possible to directly invest in the Lincoln Senior Debt Index. Some of the statements above contain opinions based upon certain assumptions regarding the data used to create the Lincoln Senior Debt Index, and these opinions and assumptions may prove incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such statements for any reason. The Lincoln Senior Debt Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but Lincoln International has not conducted an independent verification of such information. Lincoln International makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.
The LSDI should not be construed as an offer to sell or buy, or a solicitation to sell or buy, any products linked to the performance of the LSDI. The use of the LSDI in any manner, including for benchmarking purposes, is not endorsed or recommended by Lincoln International and Lincoln International is not responsible for any use made of the LSDI. Lincoln International does not guarantee the accuracy and/or completeness of the LSDI and Lincoln International shall not have any liability for any errors or omissions therein. None of Lincoln International, any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives, delegates or agents shall have any responsibility to any person (whether as a result of negligence or otherwise) for any determination made or anything done (or omitted to be determined or done) in respect of the LSDI and any use to which any person may put the LSDI. Lincoln International has no obligation to update the LSDI and has no obligation to investors with respect to any product based on the performance of the LSDI. Any investment in such a product will not acquire an interest in the LSDI. Lincoln International is not an investment adviser and will not provide any financial advice relating to a product linked to the performance of the LSDI. Investors should read any such product offering documentation and consult with their own legal, financial and tax advisors before investing in any such product.
© 2024 Lincoln Partners Advisors LLC. All rights reserved. LINCOLN SENIOR DEBT INDEX and LINCOLN INTERNATIONAL are service marks owned by Lincoln Partners Advisors LLC and its affiliated entities. Any use of these service marks and these materials, including the reproduction, modification, distribution or republication of these materials, without the prior written consent of Lincoln International, is strictly prohibited.
Contributors
I find immense fulfillment in enabling clients to achieve their objectives and navigate the complexities of today's ever-changing landscape.
Chris Croft
Managing Director & Co-Head of Transaction Opinions
New York
I enjoy sharing private capital market insights and valuation trends with my clients, while also leading a differentiated and high-touch process.
Brian Garfield
Managing Director & Global Head of Portfolio Valuations
New York
I enhance my clients’ decision making and governance processes by providing independent and objective financial advice in a highly responsive manner.
Chris Gregory
Managing Director & Co-Head of Transaction Opinions
New York
I enjoy the opportunity to provide clients with insightful and unbiased advice that will help them make the most informed decisions possible.
Ron Kahn
Managing Director & Global Co-Head of Valuations & Opinions
ChicagoRelated Perspectives
Recent Transactions
Q3 2024 Lincoln Senior Debt Index
Lincoln International is pleased to release the quarterly Lincoln US Senior Debt Index (Lincoln US Senior Debt Index, Senior Debt Index, or LSDI). The Lincoln US Senior Debt Index represents… Read More
Industrial Software: Spotlight on Engineering, Design & Manufacturing Software – Fall 2024 Report
Industrial Software continues to be an incredibly compelling area for investment and M&A among key investors and strategics. Learn more about our views in the space in our Fall 2024… Read More
Q3 2024 Lincoln Private Market Index
Lincoln Private Market Index Clocks In Another Quarter Of Growth In Q3 On The Back Of Steady Earnings Performance The Lincoln Private Market Index (LPMI), the only index that tracks… Read More
Food & Beverage Market Update Q3 2024
Looking back at the third quarter, middle market deal flow remained mixed, with a slight uptick in September activity. However, there was no large wave of post Labor Day deal… Read More
EMS Quarterly Review Q3 2024
In Q3 2024, the EMS industry exhibited normalization of inventories, consistent improvement in technology and an uptick in market demand, all of which underscore emerging market optimism. In all, Q3… Read More
Cybersecurity Report: Q3 2024
Q3 2024 continued to see the strengthening of the cybersecurity M&A market observed in the first half of the year, led by the highest quarterly number of M&A transactions in… Read More
Facilities Services Market Update Q3 2024
After a series of declining quarters since 2021, Q3 2024 marks the fourth consecutive quarter of M&A activity growth, with ~7,700 deals closed, according to S&P Global. This represents an… Read More
Packaging Quarterly Review Q3 2024
Foodservice packaging has evolved in recent years to align with consumer preferences while maintaining sustainability throughout the manufacturing process. Consumer preferences have gravitated toward food packaging that reduces the risk… Read More
Information Technology Services Mid-Year 2024 Report
For the first half of 2024, the number of M&A transactions in the global IT Services sector totaled 581, compared to 594 in H2 2023, representing a slight decline of… Read More
Chemicals Quarterly Review Q2 2024
The level of fragmentation in the Building & Infrastructure chemicals market and diverse sub-sub-sectors provides ample opportunity for value creation. By certain estimates, the top 30 players in the construction… Read More
Food & Beverage Market Update Q2 2024
Lincoln International is pleased to release its Q2 2024 Food and Beverage Quarterly Review. Looking back at the second quarter, middle market deal flow saw a steady uptick in April… Read More
Q2 2024 Lincoln Senior Debt Index
The LSDI represents years of research and analysis of data and was developed by professionals from Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group in collaboration with Professor Pietro Veronesi of The University… Read More
Q2 2024 Lincoln Private Market Index
While the Lincoln Private Market Index Increased in the Second Quarter, Private Company Earnings Growth Slowed The Lincoln Private Market Index (LPMI), the only index that tracks changes in the… Read More
EMS Quarterly Review Q2 2024
In Q2 2024, the EMS industry continued to build sector momentum by maintaining a margins-focused strategy. The normalization of inventories, consistent improvement in technology and uptick in market demand underscores… Read More
Q2 2024 Lincoln European Senior Debt Index
Lincoln International is pleased to release the latest quarterly European Senior Debt Index (ESDI). The ESDI represents years of research and analysis of data and was developed by professionals from… Read More
Cybersecurity Report: Q2 2024
Beset by escalating geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, 2023 saw significant declines in cybersecurity sector deal volume. However, the first half of 2024 has shown a significant turnaround, with… Read More
Packaging Quarterly Review Q2 2024
Over the last several years, the packaging industry has undergone significant transformations driven by rapid advancements in technology. From the introduction of innovative materials and sustainable practices to automation and… Read More
Facilities Services Market Update Q2 2024
After a series of declining quarters since 2021, Q2 2024 marks the third consecutive quarter of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity growth, with ~7,300 deals closed, according to S&P Global.… Read More
Distribution Quarterly Review Q1 2024
Public equities in Q1 2024 continued the positive momentum of Q4 2023, accelerated by impressive earnings releases particularly from the technology and energy sectors that benefited from strong artificial intelligence… Read More
Chemicals Quarterly Review Q1 2024
Despite sticky interest rates and geopolitical tensions heating up in multiple arenas, last year’s rally showed no sign of slowing through Q1 2024. The S&P 500 registered the biggest gains,… Read More
Q1 2024 Lincoln European Senior Debt Index
Lincoln International is pleased to release the latest quarterly Lincoln European Senior Debt Index (ESDI). The ESDI represents years of research and analysis of data and was developed by professionals… Read More
Food & Beverage Market Update Q1 2024
The M&A market remained somewhat challenged during the first quarter; however, we experienced improved dealmaking conditions.
Cybersecurity Report: Year-End 2023 & Q1 2024
In 2023, cybersecurity M&A activity saw a significant decline in both volume and value, reaching its lowest point since 2014, attributed to factors such as high interest rates, inflation and… Read More
EMS Quarterly Review Q1 2024
In Q1 2024, the EMS industry saw increased momentum. The normalization of inventories, cash cycles and consistent improvement in margins underscores emerging market optimism. In all, Q1 2024 saw more… Read More
Q1 2024 Lincoln Senior Debt Index
Lincoln International is pleased to release the quarterly Lincoln Senior Debt Index (LSDI). The LSDI represents years of research and analysis of data and was developed by professionals from Lincoln’s… Read More








