Q3 2024 Lincoln Private Market Index

Lincoln Private Market Index Clocks In Another Quarter Of Growth In Q3 On The Back Of Steady Earnings Performance

The Lincoln Private Market Index (LPMI), the only index that tracks changes in the enterprise value of U.S. privately held companies, increased by 2.2% during the third quarter of 2024 as the index reached a new high. As has been the case in most quarters since the index’s inception, the index’s growth was primarily driven by strong fundamental performance, rather than multiple expansion.

About the Lincoln Private Market Index

The LPMI is the only index measuring changes in the enterprise values of private companies over time – and a barometer of the performance of private companies generally. The Lincoln PMI enables private equity firms and other investors to benchmark how private company investments are performing against peers, and how this performance correlates to the S&P 500.

Lincoln designed the Lincoln PMI to solve this problem by measuring the quarterly change in enterprise values for private companies primarily owned by private equity firms. Enterprise value (EV) is the sum of a company’s equity value and debt.

To review the results of an independent study on the quality and breadth of Lincoln’s private market database, click here.

  • Quarterly Overview

    • IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
    • 29th Edition: Covers Q3 2024
    • Measures quarterly changes in the enterprise values of ~1,500 private companies, based on a population of 5,750+ companies primarily owned by private equity firms with a median EBITDA of ~$40-45 million
    • Analyzes the impact from the change in company earnings versus market valuation multiples
    • Assess the change in value for six industry sectors
  • Click here to download a printable version of this report.

Results

Lincoln PMI’s enterprise value growth was surpassed by the S&P 500 in 2024

(NOTE: All three indices above represent enterprise values, including the public market indices)
(S&P 500 EV excludes financial companies for which enterprise value is generally not meaningful; however, including such companies produces similar results)

(S&P 500 Ex7 represents the S&P 500 EV index after excluding the “Magnificent Seven” of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla)

Q3 ’24 YTD LTM CAGR Since Inception
LPMI 2.2% 5.5% 6.2% 7.6%
S&P 500 EV 4.4% 19.2% 30.0% 10.0%
S&P 500 Ex7 EV 5.9% 13.3% 21.0% NA

Sector Breakdown

Consumer companies experienced their largest enterprise value growth since Q4 2021

Industry Q3’24 YTD LTM
Business Services 2.2% 4.3% 4.0%
Consumer 1.9% 2.3% 2.3%
Energy 6.5% 3.9% 4.1%
Healthcare 2.6% 7.1% 7.0%
Industrials 1.1% 5.1% 5.7%
Technology 1.6% 3.4% 5.3%

Examining the LPMI

EBITDA Multiples versus Earnings

~45%+
Expansion of LPMI valuation multiples since Q2 2014

Examining the LPMI

Lower Middle Market vs Middle Market vs Large Corporate Sub-Indices

(Low is includes companies with LTM EBITDA <$20 million, Mid includes companies with LTM EBITDA of $20 million to $50 million and High includes companies with $50 million to $250 million)

For the second consecutive quarter, all size categories tracked  by the Lincoln PMI grew in aggregate; however, the indices continue to see variability within performance trends and the movement of multiples.

While all size categories saw improved fundamental performance, smaller and mid-sized companies (i.e. companies with EBITDA < $50 million) surpassed the performance growth of larger companies. Despite this, the large company sub index (i.e. those with EBITDA of $50 million to $250 million) was the only sub index to experience multiple expansion. Investors continue to remain focused on high quality deals and are willing to pay a premium for those companies given the lower quantity of high-quality assets in the market. This could explain the increase in multiples for larger companies, who tend to have more diverse product and service offerings with less customer or supplier concentration and therefore more stable earnings and lower risk.

 

Summary

The LPMI

General Observations

  • Private company enterprise values increased for the ninth consecutive quarter as the Lincoln PMI increased 2.2%, driven by improved earnings.
  • The S&P 500 enterprise values grew more than the Lincoln PMI in Q3 2024 driven primarily by multiple expansion.
  • Since its inception in Q1 2014, the Lincoln PMI has shown that private company enterprise value multiples have been less volatile than public company multiples and that earnings are the primary factor driving long term value creation.

Enterprise Value Results

  • Enterprise value multiples had effectively no unfavorable impact on the index for the first time in a year and a half as borrowing costs have declined materially in 2024 allowing for greater debt capacity and thus higher enterprise value multiples.
  • While the percentage of companies experiencing revenue growth slowed, the percentage of companies growing EBITDA increased showing the continued resiliency of private companies.
  • Smaller companies’ performance growth surpassed that of larger companies; however, larger companies benefited from multiple expansion as investors remained risk averse.

Industry Breakdown on an Enterprise Value Basis

  • All industries experienced enterprise value growth for the first time since Q2 2023.
  • Consumer companies experienced the largest enterprise value growth since Q4 2021 driven by improved performance and subsiding inflationary pressures.

In Summary, we believe the LPMI

  • Enables investors in private companies, including private equity firms, to benchmark their investments against their
    peers and the S&P 500 on both EV and equity value bases;
  • Demonstrates that private companies generate returns comparable to major public stock market indices with less
    volatility;
  • Offers many unique valuation insights into the fair value of private companies for a wide array of stakeholders and
    investors; and
  • Represents a significant enhancement to the information available to investors in private companies.

Methodology

Source of Data and Sample Size

On a quarterly basis, Lincoln determines the enterprise fair value of over 5,750 portfolio companies for over 175 sponsors (i.e., private equity groups and lenders to private equity groups). These portfolio companies report quarterly financial results to the sponsor or lender. Lincoln obtains this information and determines the appropriate enterprise value multiple so as to compute the enterprise value in accordance with the fair value measurement principles of generally accepted accounting principles. In assessing enterprise value, Lincoln relies on well accepted valuation methodologies such as the market approach and income approach considering each company’s historical and projected performance and other qualitative and quantitative factors. Finally, each valuation is then vetted by auditors, company management, boards of directors and regulators. Upon concluding each quarterly valuation cycle, Lincoln aggregates the underlying financial performance and enterprise value data for analysis.

To construct the Lincoln PMI, Lincoln selects a subsection of the companies valued each quarter, including private companies each generating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of less than $250.0 million, disregarding venture-stage businesses and non-operating entities, such as special purpose entities that own real estate and specialty finance assets.

For more information, visit www.lincolninternational.com/services/valuations-and-opinions/lincolnpmi

Independent Academic Validation of Lincoln’s Data

In January 2024, an Assistant Professor of Finance at Penn State University’s Smeal College of Business conducted a study to evaluate the statistical significance of Lincoln’s private market Database as compared to other independent sources, like Pitchbook, BDC Collateral, and Preqin. The test was akin to an FDA pharmaceutical drug effectiveness test wherein Lincoln’s data was tested in relation to the independent data sets, measuring overlap of deals detailed and congruency of reported terms. The results were robust and concluded that Lincoln’s data was representative of the private debt universe, and comprehensive of sponsor backed deals, in particular. Lincoln’s Database featured 53% of reported private debt deals with terms in Pitchbook and 48% of sponsor backed deals with reported debt terms that appeared in BDC Collateral. However, beyond the abundance of pure deals, Lincoln’s database goes a step beyond and includes vital operating performance figures from the portfolio company level that the other databases don’t feature. Lincoln’s data is more comprehensive, inclusive of enterprise value and financial performance metrics that allow for a much clearer picture of the state of the private markets.

5,750+
portfolio companies are evaluated by Lincoln on a quarterly basis to determine their enterprise fair value
175+
sponsors participate in LPMI i.e. private equity groups & lenders to private equity groups

 

Academic Advisors

Professor Steven Kaplan

Professor Steven Kaplan is a Senior Advisor to Lincoln’s Valuations and Opinions Group. He is the Neubauer Family Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and Kessenich E.P. Faculty Director at the Polsky Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Among other courses, Professor Kaplan teaches advanced Master of Business Administration and executive courses in entrepreneurial finance and private equity, corporate finance, corporate governance, and wealth management. Professor Kaplan conducts research on a wide array of issues in private equity, venture capital, corporate governance, boards of directors, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate finance. He has been a member of the Chicago Booth faculty since 1988.

Professor Kaplan serves on the board of Morningstar and several fund and company advisory boards. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Professor Kaplan received a Bachelor of Arts, summa cum laude, in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College and earned a Doctor of Philosophy in business economics from Harvard University.

Professor Michael Minnis

Professor Michael Minnis is a Senior Advisor to Lincoln’s Valuations and Opinions Group. He is the Deputy Dean for Faculty and Fuji Bank and Heller Professor of Accounting at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he researches the role of accounting information in allocating investment efficiently by both managers and capital providers. His recent research focuses on understanding the role of privately held companies in the U.S. economy and how these firms use financial reporting to access, deploy, and manage capital. He particularly enjoys identifying unique data and methods to empirically examine issues in a novel way.

In January 2018, Professor Minnis became a member of the Private Company Council, the primary advisory council to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) on private company issues. Professor Minnis received his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan and his B.S. from the University of Illinois, where he graduated with Highest Honors.

Meet Our Senior Team

Related Perspectives

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: The Lincoln Private Market Index is an informational indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. It is not possible to directly invest in the Lincoln Private Market Index. Some of the statements above contain opinions based upon certain assumptions regarding the data used to create the Lincoln Private Market Index, and these opinions and assumptions may prove incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such statements for any reason. The Lincoln Private Market Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but Lincoln International has not conducted an independent verification of such information. Lincoln International makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

The LPMI should not be construed as an offer to sell or buy, or a solicitation to sell or buy, any products linked to the performance of the LPMI. The use of the LPMI in any manner, including for benchmarking purposes, is not endorsed or recommended by Lincoln International and Lincoln International is not responsible for any use made of the LPMI. Lincoln International does not guarantee the accuracy and/or completeness of the LPMI and Lincoln International shall not have any liability for any errors or omissions therein. None of Lincoln International, any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives, delegates or agents shall have any responsibility to any person (whether as a result of negligence or otherwise) for any determination made or anything done (or omitted to be determined or done) in respect of the LPMI and any use to which any person may put the LPMI. Lincoln International has no obligation to update the LPMI and has no obligation to investors with respect to any product based on the performance of the LPMI. Any investment in such a product will not acquire an interest in the LPMI. Lincoln International is not an investment adviser and will not provide any financial advice relating to a product linked to the performance of the LPMI. Investors should read any such product offering documentation and consult with their own legal, financial and tax advisors before investing in any such product.

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