Q1 2024 Lincoln European Senior Debt Index

Lincoln International is pleased to release the latest quarterly Lincoln European Senior Debt Index (ESDI). The ESDI represents years of research and analysis of data and was developed by professionals from Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group in collaboration with Professor Pietro Veronesi of The University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

The first quarter of 2024 continued the momentum of the trends noted at the end of 2023. The quarterly return for the ESDI in Q1 2024 was 3.4%, compared to 2.5% for the European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI). This return was driven by (i) the higher interest rate environment; (ii) attractive margins relative to the broadly syndicated leveraged loan market; and (iii) an increase in the average price of assets in the ESDI from 97.5% to 98.2%.

Over the last 12 months, the ESDI has generated a return of 12.5%, which is slightly lower than the Lincoln’s US Senior Debt Index, which generated returns of 13.6%.

Since the first quarter of 2019, the ESDI has generated a Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5%. Returns have been higher in recent quarters primarily a result of the elevated interest rate environment.

A summary of the results for the ESDI relative to the ELLI and the LSDI are as follows:

Returns Q1-24 LTM CAGR*
ESDI 3.4% 12.5% 8.5%
ELLI 2.5% 12.1% 4.7%
LSDI 3.3% 13.6% 8.0%

* since December 31st, 2018 (inception date of ESDI)

 

 

Learn more about the ESDI

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Comparing Lincoln’s European and U.S. Senior Debt Indices

Lincoln International releases two private credit reports each quarter: the U.S. Senior Debt Index and the European Senior Debt Index, encompassing our comprehensive data research and analysis.

The indices provide overviews of the U.S. and European markets and reveal a high correlation of private credit lending returns and yields between both geographies for the past five years.

Explore a comparison of both reports below.

Total Returns

Date Index Value ESDI Index Value US SDI
December 31, 2018 100.0 100.0
December 31, 2023 148.5 145.1
European returns were higher than the US prior for the 5-year period through 31 December 2023

 

Date Index Value ESDI Index Value US SDI
June 30, 2020 100.0 100.0
December 31, 2023 134.6 133.3
Post-COVID lockdowns, US and European cumulative returns have remained similar

 

Learn more about the comparison of the European and U.S. Senior Debt Indices

If you would like to learn more about the comparison of the European and U.S. Senior Debt Indices,  please fill out your contact details below.


Methodology

Source of Data and How We Obtain the Information

On a quarterly basis, Lincoln values over 5,000 private companies owned by over 150 alternative investment funds. Most of these companies are levered via borrowings from the direct lending market. A significant percentage of the Lincoln ESDI constituents are based upon valuations of loans provided by private investment vehicles and, therefore, not disclosed in public filings.

For the private companies in the Lincoln ESDI, Lincoln advises on the fair value of at least one senior debt security in the capital structure on at least a recurring quarterly basis. All valuations conform with accounting fair value principles and have been reviewed by fund management, fund boards, limited partners, and / or auditors.

Additional information about the methodology discussion can be found at: www.lincolninternational.com/perspectives/an-overview-of-the-lincoln-senior-debt-index.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: The Lincoln European Senior Debt Index is an informational indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy (within the meaning of the EU and UK Market Abuse Regulations), or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. It is not possible to directly invest in the Lincoln European Senior Debt Index. Some of the statements above contain opinions based upon certain assumptions regarding the data used to create the Lincoln European Senior Debt Index, and these opinions and assumptions may prove incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such statements for any reason. The Lincoln European Senior Debt Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but Lincoln International has not conducted an independent verification of such information. Lincoln International makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

The Lincoln ESDI should not be construed as an offer to sell or buy, or a solicitation to sell or buy, any products which refer to the Lincoln ESDI. The use of the Lincoln ESDI in any manner is not endorsed or recommended by Lincoln International and Lincoln International is not responsible for any use made of the Lincoln ESDI, and is by permission only via a Data Usage Agreement with Lincoln International. The Lincoln ESDI must not be used to: (i) determine the amount payable under a financial instrument or a financial contract or the value of a financial instrument; or (ii) measure the performance of an investment fund with the purpose of tracking the return of the Lincoln ESDI or of defining the asset allocation of a portfolio or of computing the performance fees (within the meaning of the EU and UK Benchmarks Regulations). Lincoln International does not guarantee the accuracy and/or completeness of the Lincoln ESDI and Lincoln International shall not have any liability for any errors or omissions therein. None of Lincoln International, any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives, delegates or agents shall have any responsibility to any person (whether as a result of negligence or otherwise) for any determination made or anything done (or omitted to be determined or done) in respect of the Lincoln ESDI and any use to which any person may put the Lincoln ESDI. Lincoln International has no obligation to update the Lincoln ESDI and has no obligation to investors with respect to any product which refers to the Lincoln ESDI. Any investment in such a product will not acquire an interest in the Lincoln ESDI. Lincoln International is not an investment adviser and will not provide any financial advice relating to a product which refers to the Lincoln ESDI. Investors should read any such product offering documentation and consult with their own legal, financial and tax advisors before investing in any such product.

© 2023, 2024 Lincoln Partners Advisors LLC. All rights reserved. LINCOLN SENIOR DEBT INDEX, LINCOLN EUROPEAN SENIOR DEBT INDEX, and LINCOLN INTERNATIONAL are service marks owned by Lincoln Partners Advisors LLC and its affiliated entities. Any use of these service marks and these materials, including the reproduction, modification, distribution or republication of these materials, without the prior written consent of Lincoln International, is strictly prohibited.

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