Q2 2025 Lincoln Senior Debt Index™

Lincoln International is pleased to release the Q2 2025 Lincoln U.S. Senior Debt Index (LSDI). The Lincoln U.S. Senior Debt Index represents years of research and analysis of data and was developed by professionals from Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group in collaboration with Professor Pietro Veronesi of The University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Despite a challenging start to the quarter brought on by “Liberation Day,” LSDI results were generally consistent with the trends and observations experienced since the second quarter of 2022. Enterprise value declines that began in February and continued through April dramatically reversed after a deferral of tariffs announced on Liberation Day. The yield on the LSDI ended the quarter at 10.14%, reflecting a 0.34% decrease compared to the prior quarter as spreads tightened and secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) rates declined. Spread widening observed late in the first quarter also reversed, with spreads ending the second quarter 0.10% lower than the first quarter. Spreads remained at a level well below the LSDI’s historic average as a result of competitive factors. Heightened competition and resilient portfolio company performance resulted in an increase in the average fair value of loans in the LSDI from 98.68% to 98.90%, marking the second highest fair value in LSDI history and highest since the first quarter of 2017. Covenant defaults increased for the third straight quarter, going from 2.9% to 3.4%, but remain below the seven-year average of 4.4%.

While results for the quarter were positive overall, the macroeconomic impact of higher tariffs has caused heightened global market volatility, and therefore the outlook going forward remains uncertain. Lincoln’s Valuations and Opinions Group has been monitoring recent events and their impact on the private markets in real time. We encourage readers to contact any Lincoln valuation professional for continued updates on the current state of the private markets.

 


 

Monthly Update – Months Ending July 31 and August 31, 2025

For the month ending July 31, 2025, the U.S. Lincoln Senior Debt Index increased 10 basis points; however, for the month ending August 31, 2025, the U.S. Lincoln Senior Debt Index declined 10 basis points. As a result, for the two months ending August 31, 2025, the U.S. Lincoln Senior Debt Index was unchanged from June 30, 2025 at 98.9 representing the third highest fair value in its history, driven by heightened competition to deploy capital and resilient portfolio company performance.

 


 

The LSDI provides insight into the direct lending market as it is a fair value index consisting of four components:

  1. Total return (income return plus capital gain return);
  2. Price (i.e., fair value);
  3. Spread; and,
  4. Yield to maturity.
Each of the four components are then categorized into three types of senior loans:

  1. All senior loans – consisting of first lien, Unitranche, and second lien loans;
  2. Senior loans consisting of first lien; and,
  3. Second lien loans.

In addition, we provide additional descriptive statistics including: (a) loan-to-value; (b) the impact of interest rate (SOFR) and credit changes (spread) on total return; (c) default rates; and (d) historical yields by EBITDA size and by industry.

The U.S. non-investment grade corporate loan market has two segments: the BSL market, which attracts investors investing in broadly syndicated deals, and the direct lending market for investors investing in club deals. While correlated, there are subtle but significant differences between the two markets. Both markets primarily provide floating rate loans; however, divergences exist in terms of market liquidity, company size and credit facility size. Given the greater liquidity in the BSL market, pricing and terms are a function of the technical market and competitive factors, whereas the more illiquid direct lending market has a stronger orientation to assessing company fundamentals.

In contrast to the Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index (Morningstar LSTA) which is comprised of companies borrowing in the BSL market, the constituents in the Senior Debt Index are virtually all companies borrowing in the direct lending market.

The direct lending market is a significant source of capital to private equity-backed middlemarket companies. The Lincoln U.S. Senior Debt Index benefits market participants by providing information to facilitate a greater understanding of the attributes of this important source of capital to the private sector.

How We Obtain the Information

On a quarterly basis, Lincoln values more than 6,250 private companies primarily owned by more than 225 alternative investment funds and lenders to funds. Most of these companies are levered via borrowings from the direct lending market. A significant percentage of the Senior Debt Index constituents are based upon valuations of loans provided for non-public BDCs and other private investment vehicles and, therefore, not disclosed in public filings.

For many of the private companies valued quarterly, Lincoln advises on the fair value of at least one senior debt security in the capital structure. All valuations conform with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and fair value principles and have been reviewed by fund management, fund boards, limited partners and auditors.

Additional information can be found in our methodology discussion and on our website.

98.9
Average Fair Value of SDI for the Quarter Ending June 30, 2025

 

99.0
Estimated Average Fair Value of SDI for the Month Ending July 31, 2025

 

98.9
Estimated Average Fair Value of SDI for the Month Ending August 31, 2025

Results

Total Return

Comparison of Total Return – LSDI (All Loans) to Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index

Correlation and Comparison of Quarterly Returns – LSDI (All Loans) to BSL Market

Yields

Comparison of Yields – LSDI (All Loans) to BSL Market

1. LIBOR/SOFR in the current analysis reflects the 4-year end of quarter swap rate.

Comparison of Yields – LSDI (All Loans) by Size

Default Rates

Direct Lending Default Experience

Note: Defaults defined as loan covenant defaults (not monetary defaults)

Decomposing Yields in the Direct Lending Market – LIBOR/ SOFR Floors and Spreads

Decomposing Yield – LIBOR, LIBOR / SOFR Floors and Spreads – All Loans

 

Note: LIBOR / SOFR Floor reflects fair value weighted average for each period while LIBOR / SOFR above reflects the extent to which LIBOR / SOFR is above the floor. LIBOR / SOFR in the current analysis reflects the 4-year end of quarter swap rate.

Fair Value – Price – Trends

Fair Value – Lincoln Senior Debt Index (All Loans) Compared to the S&P / LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index

Note: Price based on fair value of the LSDI and average bid of the Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index

Bifurcation of the Impact on Total Return Due to Credit Risk and Interest Rate Risk

Decomposition of Index Returns: Interest Rate versus Credit Risk

Methodology

Source of Data and Sample Size

On a quarterly basis, Lincoln determines the enterprise fair value of over 6,250 portfolio companies for more than 225 private equity sponsors and lenders. These portfolio companies report quarterly financial results to the sponsor (i.e., private equity group) or lender. Lincoln obtains company and loan level information to create the Lincoln Senior Debt Index.

All information is prepared in accordance with the fair value measurement principles of generally accepted accounting principles. Finally, each valuation is then vetted by auditors, company management, boards of directors and regulators.

Additional information about the methodology of the LSDI can be found at: www.lincolninternational.com/perspectives/an-overview-of-the-lincoln-senior-debt-index.

Academic Advisor

Professor Pietro Veronesi is the Chicago Board of Trade Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research fellow of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Professor Veronesi’s research has appeared in numerous publications, including the Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics and Review of Financial Studies. He is the recipient of several awards, including the 2015 AQR Insight award, the 2012 and 2003 Smith Breeden prizes from the Journal of Finance; the 2008 WFA award; the 2006 Barclays Global Investors Prize from the EFA; the 2006 Fama / DFA prizes from the Journal of Financial Economics and the 1999 Barclays Global Investors / Michael Brennan First Prize from the Review of Financial Studies. Professor Veronesi teaches both masters- and Ph.D.-level courses. He is the recipient of the 2009 McKinsey Award for Excellence in Teaching.

His undergraduate work was in economics at Bocconi University where he received a laurea magna cum laude with honor in 1992. He earned a master’s degree with distinction in 1993 from the London School of Economics. He joined the Chicago Booth faculty upon obtaining his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University in 1997.

Summary

Q2 2025 Lincoln Senior Debt Index

From 2014 through June 30, 2025, a portfolio of direct lending loans has yielded higher returns and lower volatility relative to broadly syndicated loans.

The Lincoln U.S. Senior Debt Index provides market participants many unique valuation insights into the fair value of direct lending loans and represents a significant enhancement to the information available within an opaque market.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: The Lincoln Senior Debt Index is an informational indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. It is not possible to directly invest in the Lincoln Senior Debt Index. Some of the statements above contain opinions based upon certain assumptions regarding the data used to create the Lincoln Senior Debt Index, and these opinions and assumptions may prove incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such statements for any reason. The Lincoln Senior Debt Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but Lincoln International has not conducted an independent verification of such information. Lincoln International makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

The LSDI should not be construed as an offer to sell or buy, or a solicitation to sell or buy, any products linked to the performance of the LSDI. The use of the LSDI in any manner, including for benchmarking purposes, is not endorsed or recommended by Lincoln International and Lincoln International is not responsible for any use made of the LSDI. Lincoln International does not guarantee the accuracy and/or completeness of the LSDI and Lincoln International shall not have any liability for any errors or omissions therein. None of Lincoln International, any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives, delegates or agents shall have any responsibility to any person (whether as a result of negligence or otherwise) for any determination made or anything done (or omitted to be determined or done) in respect of the LSDI and any use to which any person may put the LSDI. Lincoln International has no obligation to update the LSDI and has no obligation to investors with respect to any product based on the performance of the LSDI. Any investment in such a product will not acquire an interest in the LSDI. Lincoln International is not an investment adviser and will not provide any financial advice relating to a product linked to the performance of the LSDI. Investors should read any such product offering documentation and consult with their own legal, financial and tax advisors before investing in any such product.

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