Q2 2023 Lincoln Private Market Index
Lincoln Private Market Index Gains Ground Amidst Steady Private Company Growth
The Lincoln Private Market Index (Lincoln PMI) reveals that in Q2 2023, private market enterprise values increased 2.3%. This quarter, the Lincoln PMI increased due to steady improvement in earnings in the private markets, partially offset by the ninth consecutive quarter of multiple contraction, albeit a negligible amount this period. Whereas the Lincoln PMI increased 2.3%, the S&P 500 EV increased by 8.0%, although half of the growth in the S&P 500 was driven by the five largest public companies. For the first time since in a year and a half, all industries experienced enterprise value growth as all industries grew by over 1.0%.
About the Lincoln Private Market Index
The Lincoln PMI is a first-of-its-kind index measuring changes in the enterprise values (EVs) of private companies over time – and a barometer of the performance of private companies generally. The Lincoln PMI enables private equity firms and other investors to benchmark how private company investments are performing against peers, and how this performance correlates to the S&P 500.
Lincoln designed the Lincoln PMI to solve this problem by measuring the quarterly change in enterprise values for private companies primarily owned by private equity firms. Enterprise value is the sum of a company’s equity value and debt.
- IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
- 24th Edition: Covers Q2 2023
- Measures quarterly changes in the enterprise values of ~1,400 private companies, based on a population of approximately 4,750 companies primarily owned by private equity firms with a median EBITDA of ~$30-35 million
- Analyzes the impact from the change in company earnings versus market valuation multiples
- Assess the change in value for six industry sectors
- Click here to download a printable version of this report.
Private Markets Continue Steady Enterprise Value Growth
(NOTE: Both the Lincoln PMI and S&P 500 EV returns above reflect enterprise values)
(S&P 500 EV excludes financial companies for which enterprise value is generally not meaningful; however, including such companies produces similar results)
|S&P 500 EV||8.0%||16.8%||17.0%|
|Expansion of LPMI valuation multiples since Q1 2014|
Beginning in Q2 2023, Lincoln also analyzed the private market based on size, defining size based on the amount of LTM EBITDA. While there have been times historically when enterprise values of smaller companies grew more quickly than larger companies, larger companies have outperformed smaller companies more recently. In fact, larger companies have both grown earnings at a faster rate than smaller companies and benefited from valuation multiple increases over the last four quarters. The increase in valuation multiples of late for larger companies likely results from the persistent, recessionary environment when they have lower likelihoods of customer concentration, better ability to pass along rising costs and broader product / service offering diversification.
Prior to the pandemic, however, this trend was the opposite as smaller companies grew at a faster rate than larger companies for the first five years after the inception of the index. “In both certain and uncertain times, fundamental performance of private businesses continues to be the beacon for private market valuations,” said Steve Kaplan, Neubauer Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, who assists and advises Lincoln on the LPMI. “Whether big or small, earnings growth has been the primary driver of performance, but it is interesting how larger companies have behaved more similarly to those in the public markets and more impacted by multiple movement.”
The Lincoln PMI
- Private company enterprise values increased for the fourth consecutive quarter as the Lincoln PMI increased 2.3%, similar to the approximately 2% of the last three preceding quarters.
- While both the Lincoln PMI and S&P 500 EV grew in both Q1 and Q2 of 2023, the S&P 500 EV grew more quickly; however, over half of the S&P 500 EV’s strong year-to-date performance was driven by the five trillion-plus dollar public companies.
- Since its inception in Q1 2014, the Lincoln PMI has shown that private company enterprise value multiples have been less volatile than public company multiples and that earnings are the primary factor driving long term value creation.
Enterprise Value Results
- With such steady revenue growth over the last couple years, private companies have been able to steadily grow earnings and have actually outperformed year-to-date budgets, thus enabling private companies to grow enterprise value despite pressures on valuation multiples.
- Investors remained selective and focused on recession-resilient companies, as evidenced by the reduced leverage of new deals and above-average required equity cushions; if investors look to deploy the built-up capital in the second half of 2023, the private market may yet again see rising enterprise value multiples for the first time in two years.
- Although in aggregate private company multiples have been stable, larger companies experienced rising multiples whereas smaller companies experienced multiple contraction in Q2 2023 and over the last year which helped larger companies continue to outperform smaller companies since the onset of the pandemic.
Industry Breakdown on an Enterprise Value Basis
- For the first time in a year-and-a-half, all industries experienced enterprise value growth, though consumer companies continue to lag the rest of the private markets given the persistent, recessionary pressures.
- Industrials and business services have notably outperformed the other industries over the last year thanks in large part to steady growth whereas certain other industries experienced notably greater volatility.
In Summary, we believe the Lincoln PMI
Source of Data and Sample Size
On a quarterly basis, Lincoln determines the enterprise fair value of over 4,750 portfolio companies for over 140 sponsors (i.e., private equity groups and lenders to private equity groups). These portfolio companies report quarterly financial results to the sponsor or lender. Lincoln obtains this information and determines the appropriate enterprise value multiple so as to compute the enterprise value in accordance with the fair value measurement principles of generally accepted accounting principles. In assessing enterprise value, Lincoln relies on well accepted valuation methodologies such as the market approach and income approach considering each company’s historical and projected performance and other qualitative and quantitative factors. Finally, each valuation is then vetted by auditors, company management, boards of directors and regulators. Upon concluding each quarterly valuation cycle, Lincoln aggregates the underlying financial performance and enterprise value data for analysis.
To construct the Lincoln PMI, Lincoln selects a subsection of the companies valued each quarter, including private companies each generating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of less than $250.0 million, disregarding venture-stage businesses and non-operating entities, such as special purpose entities that own real estate and specialty finance assets.
For more information, visit www.lincolninternational.com/services/valuations-and-opinions/lincolnpmi
portfolio companies are evaluated by Lincoln on a quarterly basis to determine their Enterprise Fair Value
sponsors participate in LPMI i.e. private equity groups & lenders to private equity groups
Professor Steven Kaplan
Professor Steven Kaplan is a Senior Advisor to Lincoln’s Valuations and Opinions Group. He is the Neubauer Family Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and Kessenich E.P. Faculty Director at the Polsky Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Among other courses, Professor Kaplan teaches advanced Master of Business Administration and executive courses in entrepreneurial finance and private equity, corporate finance, corporate governance and wealth management. Professor Kaplan conducts research on a wide array of issues in private equity, venture capital, corporate governance, boards of directors, mergers and acquisitions and corporate finance. He has been a member of the Chicago Booth faculty since 1988.
Professor Kaplan serves on the board of Morningstar and several fund and company advisory boards. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Professor Kaplan received a Bachelor of Arts, summa cum laude, in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College and earned a Doctor of Philosophy in business economics from Harvard University.
Professor Michael Minnis
Professor Michael Minnis is a Senior Advisor to Lincoln’s Valuations and Opinions Group. He is the Charles E. Merrill Faculty Scholar and a Professor of Accounting at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he researches the role of accounting information in allocating investment efficiently by both managers and capital providers. His recent research focuses on understanding the role of privately held companies in the U.S. economy and how these firms use financial reporting to access, deploy and manage capital. He particularly enjoys identifying unique data and methods to empirically examine issues in a novel way.
In January 2018, Professor Minnis became a member of the Private Company Council, the primary advisory council to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) on private company issues. Professor Minnis received his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan and his Bachelor of Science from the University of Illinois, where he graduated with highest honors.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: The Lincoln Private Market Index is an informational indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. It is not possible to directly invest in the Lincoln Private Market Index. Some of the statements above contain opinions based upon certain assumptions regarding the data used to create the Lincoln Private Market Index, and these opinions and assumptions may prove incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such statements for any reason. The Lincoln Private Market Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but Lincoln International has not conducted an independent verification of such information. Lincoln International makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.
The LPMI should not be construed as an offer to sell or buy, or a solicitation to sell or buy, any products linked to the performance of the LPMI. The use of the LPMI in any manner, including for benchmarking purposes, is not endorsed or recommended by Lincoln International and Lincoln International is not responsible for any use made of the LPMI. Lincoln International does not guarantee the accuracy and/or completeness of the LPMI and Lincoln International shall not have any liability for any errors or omissions therein. None of Lincoln International, any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives, delegates or agents shall have any responsibility to any person (whether as a result of negligence or otherwise) for any determination made or anything done (or omitted to be determined or done) in respect of the LPMI and any use to which any person may put the LPMI. Lincoln International has no obligation to update the LPMI and has no obligation to investors with respect to any product based on the performance of the LPMI. Any investment in such a product will not acquire an interest in the LPMI. Lincoln International is not an investment adviser and will not provide any financial advice relating to a product linked to the performance of the LPMI. Investors should read any such product offering documentation and consult with their own legal, financial and tax advisors before investing in any such product.