The Nordic Private Debt Landscape: Strong Growth Projections for Year Ahead

Dec 2021

The Nordic region has bounced back stronger than its European counterparts following the COVID-19 pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) has largely recovered from a less significant pandemic downturn, whereas other countries’ healing is lagging.

While central bank and government stimulus programs have supported GDP growth, rising inflation should be monitored globally as both inflation and GDP are substantial factors in any private portfolio transaction. Though, Nordic consumer inflation levels do not appear to be moving outside target levels.

Beyond GDP and inflation, Lincoln International bankers and other industry experts shared insights specific to the Nordic region during a recent private debt panel, co-hosted by Lincoln and Hannes Snellman.

• Recently, the Nordic region has experienced an active mergers and acquisitions market. Industry sectors such as business services, healthcare and technology are reporting above average EBITDA multiples across the board. Last quarter, multiples started to normalize as COVID-19 adjustments began to cycle out. Now, high multiples reflect anticipated forward earnings.
• Bankruptcies and default rates declined during the pandemic due to a combination of shareholder and lender liquidity support, government stimulus and relaxed solvency standards. Recent months have shown an uptick in bankruptcies, but they are still within the normal range of occurrence. Default rates are also approaching all-time lows following covenant holidays, improved liquidity and strong financial performance. Borrowers and lenders alike are committed to developing debt funds alongside other key financing channels in the Nordic region due to its consistent market bounce back.
• As of late, investors have determined credit funds that dedicate time and resources to sustainability-focused loans and private equity funds are increasingly valuable. Banks and consultants want to work with environmental, social and governance-focused management teams and sponsors, because they can enhance value as well as rapidly penetrate the space and benefit from a competitive advantage in a sale process.
• Looking to 2022, sponsors will be forced to diversify their strategies if they want to ensure success in an increasingly competitive market. In order to manage unique selling propositions among the competitive dimension, funds will inevitably expand to address the needs of both borrowers and sponsors. Borrowers should engage with partners that can support them across all European Union regions, specializing in a sector or product rather than in a particular region.

As regional economies continue to find their footing amidst the COVID-19-induced “new normal,” market predictions offer exciting growth projections for 2022 and beyond.

To learn more about the 2022 projections for the private debt landscape in the Nordics, submit a request below to access the full recording of Lincoln International’s third annual Nordic private debt panel with representatives of ICG’s Zeina Bain, SEB’s Stuart Hewer, Bridgepoint Credit’s Jan Swärd and PCP’s David Ullenius.

Please complete the form below to request access to the full recording