Lincoln International’s experts share insights into the 2026 outlook for transportation & logistics M&A.

2025: Macro, Tariffs and a Strategic Reset

The dominant backdrop for T&L in 2025 was uncertainty stemming from both macroeconomic conditions and persistent trade and tariff risks, particularly from the U.S. Shifting tariff policy, protectionist rhetoric and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighed on global trade flows and limited visibility for shippers and logistics service providers (LSPs).

The latest data from Transport Intelligence points to approximately 3% real growth in global forwarding in 2025, with demand benefitting from supportive factors such as frontloading of imports into North America ahead of anticipated tariff increases, growth momentum across emerging markets and a sharp rise in trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment.

Similarly, the global contract logistics market is expected to have grown by approximately 4% in 2025, representing a modest acceleration versus 2024. The improvement is driven by structural rather than cyclical factors: continued outsourcing of warehousing and fulfilment, increased complexity in omnichannel distribution and growing demand for value-added services such as automation, inventory management and returns handling. Growth remains uneven by region, with Asia significantly outperforming North America and Europe, and by end market, with consumer- and e-commerce-linked sectors and healthcare outperforming industrial and discretionary segments.

At the same time, LSPs continue to face inflationary pressures—particularly labor and energy—while financing conditions, though stabilizing, reinforced valuation discipline. Together with tariffs, macro and geopolitical uncertainties, buyers were confronted with a fundamentally altered market environment. Scale alone no longer guarantees value creation; resilience, data and execution matter far more. These dynamics are reflected in the shift toward highly targeted acquisitions, bolt-ons and operationally driven transactions.

What Buyers Focused on in 2025

Over the course of 2025, and particularly in the second half of the year, strategic and financial buyers largely aligned around a narrower but clearer set of priorities.

Resilience and Earnings Quality

Buyers consistently favored businesses with predictable earnings, ideally underpinned by long-term contracts and limited exposure to spot freight volatility. Healthcare logistics, cold chain food logistics, e-commerce logistics and other specialized contract logistics continued to command premium interest, supported by structural demand growth rather than cyclical recovery.

This focus on earnings quality reflected a broader shift towards acquirers underwriting deals based on downside protection, not just upside optionality.

Technology as a Differentiator

Technology moved decisively to the center of deal rationales. Assets offering automation, digital freight management, ecosystem integration, real-time visibility or AI-enabled optimization were viewed as structurally advantaged in a lower-growth environment.

Rather than treating technology as an add-on, buyers increasingly view it as core infrastructure, essential for margin defense, scalability, customer retention and market share gains. This theme cuts across all T&L subsegments.

Private Equity: Active, but Disciplined

Private equity remained present but cautious. Sponsors clearly prioritized platform reinforcement, pursuing bolt-ons that improved density, capability or efficiency rather than transformative leverage-driven deals. However, targeted platform deals also occurred. In December 2025, BC Partners announced its acquisition of a majority stake in Italy-headquartered Fortidia, a provider of shipping, fulfilment and marketing services for small and medium-sized enterprises worldwide. This followed Wind Point Partners’ November 2025 announcement of its acquisition of Buske, a contract warehousing and supply chain services provider serving food, beverage and CPG end markets.

At the same time, many PE-backed logistics platforms began preparing for exits, anticipating that further stabilization in macro and tariff conditions, alongside improving mergers and acquisitions (M&A) momentum would support a more favorable exit window in 2026.

Why 2026 Looks Different

If 2025 was about adjustment, 2026 is shaping up as a year of selective reengagement. Transport Intelligence forecasts for 2026 point to modest growth across most logistics segments, while uncertainty—though still present—appears more manageable.

Crucially, this shift coincides with improving global M&A sentiment. The latest LSEG data shows that total global M&A volumes rebounded meaningfully in 2025, supported by stabilizing financing markets and renewed strategic confidence, particularly in North America, providing a stronger backdrop for T&L transactions. Our conversations with market participants confirm that buyers are no longer waiting for optimum conditions, instead learning to transact in an imperfect but more predictable environment.

However, tariff-related uncertainty could reemerge in 2026 if the Supreme Court’s review, due this month, confirms that President Trump overstepped his emergency-powers authority when levying broad-based import taxes. In that scenario, the U.S. administration is expected to pursue alternative regulatory mechanisms to achieve its policy goals.

2026 M&A Outlook by Segment

Freight Forwarding: Consolidation with Clear Filters

Freight forwarding enters 2026 from a subdued base following a difficult 2025. Growth is expected to resume gradually, but margin pressure and rate volatility will persist. Ocean freight rates in particular may be impacted by a broad-based return of carriers to the Suez Canal and new ship capacity orders exceeding freight volume growth.

M&A Implications

• Strategic buyers will focus on targets that add trade-lane specific depth, customs expertise or digital execution capabilities. As 2025 saw limited consolidation post DSV-Schenker, we expect growing appetite among other top-20 players to catch-up with the industry leaders.
• Private equity interest will center on technology-enabled models and aggregator platforms with scope for accretive add-on M&A such as low-risk tuck-in acquisitions of agents or specialized expertise along certain trade-lanes or customer verticals.
• Forwarders lacking differentiation are likely to remain valuation-constrained.

Contract Logistics: The Core Growth Engine

Contract logistics stands out as the most attractive T&L segment heading into 2026. Growth is underpinned by continued outsourcing of complex logistics operations as well as secular drivers such as e-commerce, near-shoring and inventory localization.

Market observers project steady expansion, particularly in automation-heavy warehouses, temperature-controlled logistics and value-added services, with above-GDP growth rates attainable for LSPs able to address first-time outsourcing opportunities.

M&A Implications

• Strategic buyers will pursue scale combined with capability, including sector specialization, multi-country service coverage, and automation or technology expertise. Cross-selling and the build-out of end-to-end capabilities will remain key considerations.
• Private equity is expected to remain active, while infrastructure capital increasingly competes for high-quality targets with stable, long-duration cash flows and the opportunity for acquiring strategic logistics real estate.
  

Road Transport: Normalization, Not a Boom

General cargo and industrial road transport remains structurally challenged both in Europe and North America, but 2026 could mark a stabilization phase. Capacity discipline, easing financing conditions and gradual rate recovery, particularly in North America, should support earnings normalization.

However, labor shortages and regulation, especially in Europe, will continue to weigh on valuations. Decarbonization may offer upside for European carriers with the ability to capitalize on the advantages from shifting of fleets towards battery electric trucks.

M&A Implications

• Strategic buyers will focus on bolt-ons for network synergies or access to specialized fleets (offering differentiation).
• Private equity (PE) interest will be selective and operationally driven, likely targeting carriers with specialized fleets and adjacent service offerings (e.g., bulk commodity with adjacent tank cleaning and container rental).
• Sellers should expect rigorous scrutiny of utilization rates, margins and digital fleet management capabilities.

Infrastructure Capital: A Structural Shift

One significant development heading into 2026 is the growing role of infrastructure investors in logistics M&A. Large, long-term capital pools are increasingly targeting logistics assets with predictable cash flows, inflation linkage and strategic relevance.

The recent bid by Macquarie for Australian logistics group Qube Holding illustrates this shift, highlighting infrastructure capital’s willingness to compete directly with PE and strategics for scaled logistics and well differentiated platforms with strategic assets. For suitable targets, this dynamic is likely to support valuation resilience and broaden exit options.

M&A Implications

• Infrastructure capital is broadening the buyer universe for logistics assets, particularly in contract logistics, intermodal, ports-adjacent operations, and asset-heavy logistics platforms.
• This dynamic is likely to support valuation resilience for suitable targets and expand exit optionality for sponsors and founders.
• Over time, increased infrastructure participation may structurally raise clearing multiples for high-quality logistics businesses with stable cash flows and strategic asset bases.

From Reset to Momentum

T&L M&A enters 2026 with greater clarity and confidence than a year earlier. The lessons of 2025, shaped by tariffs, macro pressure and capital discipline, have fundamentally reshaped buyer behavior.

As broader M&A activity improves, infrastructure capital deepens its presence and strategic buyers refocus on quality over scale, 2026 is set to be defined by purposeful, higher quality dealmaking. For PE sellers and private owners, 2026 may represent a credible window to transact, provided assets are well-positioned, clearly differentiated and able to withstand increasingly rigorous investment scrutiny.