Advisors from Lincoln International and L.E.K. Consulting explore select key M&A investor themes, as well as the state of the fitness market in 2025.

The Fitness Investment Landscape in 2025:

Key M&A Investor Themes

M&A Activity is Robust; More Investor Groups Enter the Category 

While many of the 70+ M&A transactions involved consolidation by established platforms or experienced investment firms, a significant number of investment groups entered the fitness category for the first time. Within the Crunch ecosystem alone, Trive Capital, CapitalSpring and Meaningful Partners each made significant investments in fast-growing franchisee platforms. Within the Planet Fitness franchise Mayfair Capital acquired Baseline Fitness with plans to grow unit count both organically and through M&A. As the fitness sector gains recognition as a key area for investment, this influx of new participants will continue to reshape the competitive landscape and accelerate consolidation across the industry.

Member Visits at HVLP Locations Outpace Other Concepts in the Industry

Crunch Fitness annual visits across the ecosystem are up over 150% since pre-COVID, and Planet Fitness visits are up 65%. In contrast, higher-end gym visits remain flat or slightly down. The key driver here relates to the investment in new, larger HVLP locations across the country along with consumer trends impacting per membership visits.

Out of the Box Strategics are Actively Participating in Processes, But Not Making It Across the Finish Line, Yet 

In late 2023, the Flynn Group made its first non-restaurant acquisition by purchasing a Planet Fitness franchisee. This transaction sparked anticipation that a new class of nontraditional strategic buyers could emerge as prolific acquirers and drive up valuations. Despite the initial splash, this buyer type has remained on the sidelines. That said, interest from this buyer-type has remained strong during several recent processes and it is only a matter of time before this out of the box strategic buyers makes it across the finish line.

The Regional HVLP M&A Market is Off to the Races 

It was widely known last year that Mountainside Fitness would be just the start of many M&A opportunities within the regional HVLP landscape. In 2025, preparation is underway to finally liquidate long-held positions of concepts that have carved their niche in specific regions or within a specific consumer segment of the HVLP ecosystem. Although multiple assets hitting the trading block simultaneously might result in certain opportunities garnering more attention than others, demand for high-quality opportunities remains at an all-time high, and it is expected that most of these assets will attract a strong hand of initial bids.

International Markets are Key Growth Avenues for Select Ecosystems 

For fitness concepts that have successfully built out large U.S. platforms, a clear strategy for 2025 includes mapping out international markets to drive accelerated growth and clear differentiation. As part of the strategy, platforms are seeking international acquisition prospects to either lock up select territories or find additional avenues of growth. Investors should be ready to see significant cross-border activity over the coming months and years.

Following Barry’s and Solidcore Transactions, Eyes Turn to the Next M&A Opportunities within Boutique Fitness

Barry’s and Solidcore were key topics of interest in 2024 for investors looking at where to deploy capital within boutique fitness. When these M&A processes crossed the finish line (in arguably very different ways from each other), the groundwork was set for shareholders of other boutique brands to look ahead towards potential liquidity events. CrossFit will be the most prevalent name to transact in 2025, but given the significant interest in leading Pilates, yoga and strength training concepts, several other platforms will likely test the market as well in the near term. On the flip side, ecosystems facing challenges, such as OrangeTheory, are seeing conversations shift toward lenders rather than acquirers in the near term.

Buy-Side Strategy is Critical to Winning a Process, Given Investor Funnel Trends 

Following trends first established in Europe, the U.S. market is beginning to recognize the significant value of buy-side M&A guidance in helping buyers position themselves to succeed in evolving M&A strategies. In the fitness sector specifically, the initial bid deadline generates elevated expectations both in terms of valuation and total quantity of bids. This leads to many groups dropping out of the process due to valuation expectations or failing to secure an invitation to the second round. Sellers then see higher than expected attrition in the later stages of the transaction which increases the probability of a busted process. While A+ quality M&A opportunities find a simple path to the finish line, strategic buy-side guidance and insights can be a game-changer for navigating more complex transactions. Lincoln has seen a significant uptick in U.S. demand for buy-side advice, as buyers seek to increase the probability of a successful outcome. Across the pond, Europe is watching and saying, “It’s about time.”

Fitness Products Continues to See Near Term Headwinds with Long Term Visions of a Fully Connected Ecosystem 

Given geopolitical unknowns, tariff implications and decreasing consumer sentiment, the fitness products sector continues to see earnings choppiness. While select companies, especially those focused on developing innovative products or over-indexed on commercial markets, are starting to gain market momentum, the vast majority of players are heads down improving operational efficiencies and identifying new avenues for growth. Despite these near-term challenges, the industry anticipates a potential revolution over the next decade, driven by increasing consumer demand for fitness data tracking. The growing need for innovation will create significant opportunities for fitness product companies to connect the broader ecosystem, enabling consumers to track workout metrics across brand ecosystems and workout modalities. Over the next five to ten years, many incumbent brands risk irrelevancy as new entrants redefine the connected ecosystem environment.

HVLP 3.0 is Officially Here! Great—Now What Do You Do With the 1.0s? 

As fitness concepts evolve their offerings to provide additional value to their consumers—and improve cost efficiencies for shareholders—the investment landscape becomes further focused on a platform’s mix of newer versus older locations. The 1.0 versions of the gyms may not necessarily command premium valuation multiples given the perceived future capex requirements and limitations in unit economics, but these locations can still hold value for cash flow or real estate lock-up investment strategies.

Prior to future transactions, current shareholders need to assess whether to A) go to market with a mix of older and newer locations, accepting that new investors will discount the value of older locations; B) spend capex to bring older locations up to the quality of the newer locations; or C) split up the platform, selling the newer locations at a premium while finding a separate buyer for the older locations. While concepts A and B have been tested many times, concept C could be the path to achieving outlier valuations for select operators. For investors, this underscores the importance of factoring in location mix when evaluating which platforms to back. Platforms with a proven ability to optimize location performance are clearly well-positioned to attract attention and capital in today’s market.

Are you Tired of Talking About GLP Implications Yet? 

Us too – let’s keep it brief. Over 90% of industry executives interviewed by Lincoln believe GLPs are a net positive for the industry, both positioning more people to beginning exercising and also revenue generation for clubs that lean into the concept of the “gym as a clinic.”For more insights, check out our perspective with Athletech News, where we delved into this topic.

Celebrity and Athlete Endorsements Create Perception of Differentiation  

2024 was the year of athlete endorsements of traditional HVLP systems. James Harden followed in the footsteps of Dak Prescott and Cristiano Ronaldo by launching three Crunch Fitness franchisee gyms in Texas with special “HIIT Like Harden” classes. Athletes becoming a part of the gym’s cap table isn’t anything new (e.g., NFL MVP Steve Young’s 2021 Planet Fitness acquisition), but amidst continued consolidation, the strategy is taking on renewed importance in the HVLP ecosystem as investors try to differentiate their platforms. Based on the unit metrics for specific locations, this strategy seems to be working and is a net positive for both the industry and platforms preparing to trade hands in the coming years.

The M&A Takeaway

The M&A fitness landscape remains dynamic and multifaceted, with trends varying across subsegment. However, the industry will likely see a continued, heightened level of M&A activity. Investor appetite for fitness businesses remains strong relative to other consumer categories, which will drive a robust M&A environment for the foreseeable future.

From a fitness club perspective, traditional HVLP systems will continue consolidating their ecosystems, ultimately trading hands to an ever-evolving buyer landscape. Meanwhile, regional HVLP systems may look to test if large funds will step up to the plate for a nationwide brand rollup strategy. For fitness product manufacturers navigating the broader consumer discretionary landscape, success will favor companies with a clear multi-channel strategy, strong product differentiation and healthy balance sheets—key attributes for thriving in the ‘new normal.’

Ultimately, as the industry adapts to evolving buyer and consumer dynamics, M&A activity will remain a driving force in shaping the future of the fitness sector. Connect with Lincoln’s team of dedicated bankers today to learn more about our sector insights through 2025 and beyond.

M&A and Public Markets Exhibits

Lincoln Valuations Group Market Data for Fitness Sector

Source: VOG Private Market Proprietary Data
Data as of: March  2025