Fortune | In the $3 Trillion Private Credit Market, the ‘Shadow Default’ Rate is Increasing as More Money Chases Lower-Quality Deals
Originally Published by Fortune on February 22, 2026.
While the total value of companies in the private credit market has risen over the past year, debt quality and EBITDA growth have largely weakened. Brian Garfield, Managing Director & Head of U.S. Portfolio Valuations, recently shared more insights from Lincoln’s latest index report with Fortune.
“There’s essentially a slowing of growth that’s occurring, and that’s just a takeaway of what might come,” Brian said.
Summary
-
Lincoln International shares insights into the shadow default rate in the private credit market.
- Sign up to receive Lincoln's perspectives
Contributors
I enjoy sharing insights about market and valuation trends with my clients, while also leading a differentiated and high-touch process.
Brian Garfield
Managing Director & Head of U.S. Portfolio Valuations
New York