Valuations & Opinions
Feb 2026

Fortune | In the $3 Trillion Private Credit Market, the ‘Shadow Default’ Rate is Increasing as More Money Chases Lower-Quality Deals

Originally Published by Fortune on February 22, 2026.

While the total value of companies in the private credit market has risen over the past year, debt quality and EBITDA growth have largely weakened. Brian Garfield, Managing Director & Head of U.S. Portfolio Valuations, recently shared more insights from Lincoln’s latest index report with Fortune.

“There’s essentially a slowing of growth that’s occurring, and that’s just a takeaway of what might come,” Brian said.

Read the article.

Summary

Contributors

Brian Garfield

Managing Director & Global Head of Portfolio Valuations

New York

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