Silent Defaults

Impact of SOFR Rate Changes on Portfolio Companies' Fixed Charge Coverage Ratios

November 2024
With SOFR at 5%, around 40% of the companies that Lincoln values have an FCCR of one or less. Despite rates coming down, over 30% of companies will still have an FCCR of one or less, but M&A is poised to accelerate.

Fed's Surprise Rate Cut: Balancing Economic Slowdown and Inflation Risks

November 2024
In response to a slowing economy, the Fed's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut raises questions about timing and potential inflation resurgence, as concerns linger over whether the cuts are too late or too rapid amidst rising goods prices and economic uncertainty.

Dynamics Driving the Chemicals Market

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Specialty Chemicals Transformation

August 2024
Specialty chemical providers are thriving, driven by a focus on technology, product differentiation and high-growth markets. However, to stay competitive, companies must prioritize commercial innovation and robust R&D.
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Traditional Oil and Gas Companies Leading Charge Toward Sustainability

August 2024
Traditional oil and gas companies are leading in green tech innovation. Downstream chemical companies must align with this shift, crafting strong ESG narratives to demonstrate how their goals contribute to sustainability.
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European Energy Crunch

August 2024
The European energy crunch highlights a shift in the global chemical industry. With less gas from Russia, the U.S. and Asia have a competitive advantage, creating opportunities for companies that effectively navigate this landscape.
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Growing Activity in Oil Field Chemicals

August 2024
The oil field chemicals sector is experiencing a surge in interest. As a critical component in supporting energy and feedstock needs for a growing global population, this industry is poised for further consolidation.
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Takeaways from the Specialty & Ag Chemicals SOCMA Show

August 2024
We are seeing strong interest in chemicals sectors that are resilient to changing consumer preferences, particularly water treatment, cleaning and adhesives. These high-value areas offer consolidation and growth opportunities.

The State of M&A

Potential 2024 Black Swan Events

June 2024
Several factors—such as a potential interest rate cut, a black swan event, and the U.S. election—may impact deal flow in 2024.

What Will Cause Further Acceleration of Deal Flow?

June 2024
In the past year, we've witnessed deal flow, yet there have been fewer closed transactions. This creates a dynamic where sellers struggle to align their expectations with market realities.

When Will Deal Flow Return in Earnest?

June 2024
As deal flow reemerges, it’s partially driven by private equity feeling pressure from their limited partners. After 18 to 24 months without capital returns, LPs are now advocating for liquidity events and distributions, a concept commonly referred to as DPI.

The Current State of the Deal Market

June 2024
Market activity is returning with cautious optimism. Several deals put on hold in 2023 are going to market in 2024.

Pulse on the Transportation and Logistics Market

Strategic Nearshoring is Essential for Supply Chain Resilience

June 2024
Mexico has emerged as America's primary trading partner, surpassing China for the first time in decades. This shifting dynamic underscores the urgency for transportation and logistics providers to scale capabilities.

Which Segments of the Logistics Industry are Most Ripe for M&A Activity?

June 2024
There is great interest in logistics subsectors, such as pharma and healthcare, cold chain, and e-commerce. These industries have long-term demand, regardless of economic conditions.

What Factors are Driving M&A Activity in the T&L Sector

June 2024
While transportation and logistics mergers and acquisitions slowed from its peak in 2021 and 2022, signs indicate activity is trending up. In Q1, 2024 deal activity surged by over 15% compared to the same period last year.

Previous Releases

 

Lincoln's Latest Vet Part 02

Vet Trends - Part Two

February 2024
Part one of our Lincoln's Latest: Vet series. Matt Lee, Managing Director in our Healthcare Group, shares the current staffing, financial and regulatory dynamics in the European vet market.

Vet Trends - Part One

February 2024
Part one of our Lincoln's Latest: Vet series. Matt Lee, Managing Director in our Healthcare Group, shares the current staffing, financial and regulatory dynamics in the European vet market.
Electric Vehicle Trends

Electric Vehicle Trends

August 2023
Lincoln’s automotive and mobility technology professionals share some top trends that are playing a key role in the electric vehicle market’s momentum.
Energy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part OneEnergy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part Three

Energy, Power & Infrastructure Trends - Part Three

August 2023
Part three of our energy, power and infrastructure (EP&I) series! Lincoln’s professionals share themes within the product, outsourced service provider and software technology subsectors.
Energy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part OneEnergy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part Two

Energy, Power & Infrastructure Trends - Part Two

August 2023
Part two of our EP&I series! Lincoln’s professionals explore energy storage, renewable energy and trends specific to Europe.
Energy, Power and Infrastructure - Trends Part One

Energy, Power & Infrastructure Trends - Part One

July 2023
Part one of our EP&I series! Lincoln’s experts reveal some of the top 2023 global EP&I mega themes impacting the sector.
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Cybersecurity Dynamics

April 2023
Lincoln’s cybersecurity experts reveal some of the top 2023 cybersecurity themes.
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Education Trends

March 2023
Lincoln’s education, technology and services professionals share some of the top trends that are leading the education market in 2023.
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Succeeding in the Beauty Market

Nov 2022
Lincoln’s beauty experts offer brands advice on how to succeed in today’s beauty market.
Q3 2022 Valuation Insights

Q3 2022 Valuation Insights

Nov 2022
Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group shares insights into Q3 2022 valuations, including private company enterprise value multiples, third-party M&A buyouts and European revenue, EBITDA growth and margins.
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ESG Trends

Nov 2022
Lincoln’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) experts share key ESG insights for investors or companies that are looking to buy or sell.
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Trends in the Financial Institutions Market

Sep 2022
Lincoln's Financial Institutions Group offers a perspective on the key trends that are playing a role in the financial institutions market.
Healthcare Thumbnail Q4 2021

Overview of Pharmaceutical Outsourced Market

Nov 2021
James West, Director in Lincoln’s Healthcare Group, gives an overview of the pharmaceutical outsourced market, including global drivers and trends, response from private equity firms and attractive assets for investors within the sector.

Resilient Pet Sector Attracts Increasing Investor Interest Underpinned by Changing Consumer Habits

Apr 2021
Listen as members of Lincoln's Consumer Group share their thoughts on the resilient pet sector; identifying the latest trends in investor appetite and key strategies for growth for pet businesses in 2021.

Q1 Valuation Insights and 2021 Forecasts

Mar 2021
With over 2,400 portfolio #valuations performed globally by Lincoln International last quarter, our global Valuations & Opinions Group shares insights from this data on EV multiples, EBITDA performance and their forecasts for private company valuations in 2021.

Resilient TMT Sector Drives Increasing Competition and Diversified Investment Strategies

Mar 2021
Our TMT colleagues from around the world share insights into trends including artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, as well the latest updates on mergers and acquisitions activity in the sector.

Accelerated Trends in Industrials

Jan 2021
Listen to perspectives on various aspects within the Industrials industry, from the safety and survivability in the specialty vehicle market in a COVID and post-COVID world to outbound mergers and acquisitions trends in China.

Accelerated Trends in Debt Advisory

2020
Hear perspectives on the debt advisory landscape.

Accelerated Trends in Consumer

2020
Hear perspectives on the changing global consumer landscape from opportunities in home living and e-commerce to the evolution of retailers in the face of increasing competition from Amazon.

Accelerated Trends in Business Services

2020
Listen to perspectives on key considerations for mergers and acquisitions in business services, including global distribution and supply chain, talent and staffing in the UK and engineering services in the Nordics.

Accelerated Trends in Valuations & Opinions

2020
Discover proprietary insights into the impact of COVID-19 on private company valuations to date as well as initial Q4 predictions.

Accelerated Trends in Technology, Media & Telecom

2020
Hear insights on navigating rising competition as digital strategies accelerate.

Contributors

I build trust with clients by putting their interests first at all times.

Aude Doyen

Managing Director & Co-head of Capital Advisory, Europe

London

Meet our Senior Team

Recent Perspectives

Lincoln’s Latest

Lincoln’s Latest video series features experts from across industries, services and geographies, sharing perspectives on current trends, recent observations and future outlooks.

Media Digest: Q3 2023 Lincoln Private Market Index

Our Valuations & Opinions Group recently discussed findings from the Q3 2023 Lincoln Private Market Index with several publications. Terminal CFO LevFin Insights PE Professional Pitchbook Axios Blackstone

Middle Market Musings Podcast

Originally posted by Middle Market Musings in October 2023. Chief Executive Officer Rob Brown offers a perspective on how private equity and the firm have developed over the course of… Read More

European Market Buzz: Emerging Trends

The European market is bustling with a myriad of activities and developments. Richard Olson, Managing Director in Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group, discussed some of these dynamics with several publications.… Read More

pemacom | Outlook for the German M&A Market in 2023

Originally published by pemacom on September, 19, 2023.   1. Challenging Economic Environment Following a weak second half of 2022, the number of M&A deals will continue to decline in… Read More

The Lead Left Webinar | Navigating the 2023 M&A Landscape

Originally posted by The Lead Left on October 9, 2023. Christine Tiseo, Managing Director and co-head of Lincoln’s Capital Advisory Group, recently participated on a panel where industry experts discussed… Read More

Investors Seek Protection in the Safety Workwear Market

The safety workwear industry is a highly resilient and very attractive market that covers all personal protective equipment from head to toe, including helmets, goggles, gloves, shoes, protective clothing and… Read More

Riding the Sound Waves – Key Trends in the Audio Industry

The audio equipment industry, a sub-sector of the $263 billion global professional audio/visual (AV) market, is a large, diversified and resilient sector that is projected to grow significantly over coming… Read More

Cybersecurity: Zeroing in on Current and Future Trends

As we enter the second half of the year, the state of cybersecurity is coming into sharper focus following a tumultuous 2022. Here are Lincoln International’s key observations and predictions.… Read More

Leading Indicators Show Declining Ability to Service Debt

According to Lincoln International’s proprietary private market database, maintained by Lincoln’s Valuations & Opinions Group, highly leveraged, privately-held companies are feeling the pinch as rising interest rates begin to take… Read More

How Consumer Products & Services Companies Are Viewing M&A Outlook for 2023

In today’s dealmaking environment, uncertainty and caution reign supreme. Consumer confidence has seen declines as high inflation and recession fears dominate. At the same time, investors continue to look for… Read More

PitchBook | Fixed Charge Coverage Shrinking on Midsized Companies – Lincoln

Originally posted by PitchBook on May 9, 2023. Rising interest rates are negatively impacting borrowers in the middle market. Christine Tiseo, Managing Director and co-head of Lincoln’s Capital Advisory Group,… Read More

Plant-based Alternatives are Poised for Growth

Lincoln International was pleased to host the Plant-based Potential: The Rapid Rise of Alternative Foods and Growth Opportunities Ahead panel at the Food & Drink Expo in Birmingham, UK. During… Read More

Beauty Outlook: Optimism for an Attractive 2023

Many investors are eyeing the year ahead for the beauty and personal care industry as it is ripe for accelerated growth due to several factors. 2022 had a key focus… Read More

Home Health and Hospice is an Evolving M&A Environment

Lincoln International participated in Farragut Square Group’s Home Health, Hospice and Personal Care webinar on February 28, 2023. During the webinar, alongside a group of fellow industry experts, we shared… Read More

European M&A Outlook: Four Deal Drivers for 2023 and Beyond

After a record-setting 2021, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2022 was poised for a normalization, yet it still hovered near pre-pandemic levels for total deal value. Following the retrench… Read More

Private Equity International | How Private Equity Valuations Measure Up

Originally posted by Private Equity International on February 28, 2023. Private equity firms have been navigating market volatility for the past 12 to 18 months, and public market valuations have… Read More

Private Equity International | Covenant Breaches Trend Upward as GPs Navigate Uncertainty

Originally posted by Private Equity International on February 22, 2023. According to the Lincoln PMI (LPMI), private equity (PE) firms and their portfolio companies are becoming increasingly concerned about financial… Read More

CFO | Earnings Multiples for PE-Backed Firms Fall for 7th Straight Quarter

Originally posted by CFO on February 22, 2023. For private companies, a modest increase in EBITDA kept their valuations from declining in Q4 2022. In fact, the Lincoln PMI (LPMI)… Read More

IPEM | Event: Cannes 2023

Lincoln International was pleased to attend IPEM Cannes 2023 from January 23 to 25. The event provided attendees the opportunity to connect with other professionals in the private capital markets,… Read More

The Lead Left | Webinar: 2023 M&A Outlook

Lincoln International is pleased to have participated in The Lead Left Presents: 2023 M&A Outlook, a webinar discussing market activity and expectations for the coming year. A few key takeaways… Read More

Whither Cybersecurity Deal Activity in 2023?

Don More, Managing Director in Lincoln International’s Technology, Media & Telecom Group, recently attended Evolution Equity Partners’ Annual Investor Day in New York to discuss the capital markets and cybersecurity… Read More

The Business of Fashion | Beauty’s Top M&A Targets

Originally posted by The Business of Fashion on January 23, 2023. Ashleigh Barker, Director in Lincoln’s Consumer Group, shares how leading beauty companies are well positioned to capitalize on the… Read More

UK Hospitality: Unlocking Hidden Value

The hospitality industry has experienced several challenges over the last few years, which at times has led to valuation concerns amongst investors. However, an opportunity presents for businesses to attract… Read More

The Loadstar | Takeover Talk: Mid-sized Deals to Power 2023 M&A Activity

Originally published by The Loadstar on December 23, 2022. Dirk Engelmann and Gaurang Shastri, Managing Directors in Lincoln’s Business Services Group, share their expectations for logistics and transportation mergers and… Read More